Round 15, 2017 AFL Tipping Guide | Boydz N The Hood

Footy Tips

Published on June 30th, 2017 | by Tristan "Air T" Prentice

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Round 15, 2017 AFL Tipping Guide

 

Boydz N The Hood AFL Weekly Tipping Guide

Presented by NZ Illustration

Melbourne v Sydney at MCG

Head tip: The Demons have finally begun to earn respect and have the big stage of Friday night footy for the first time since 2012. The side gunning for its fifth win in a row has the balance of attack and defence remnant of the side of early 00s thanks to super coach Simon Goodwin. The Demons are the third best clearance team in the competition and that should be enough to get them across the line against the Swans.

Heart tip: The Swans have not lost to the Demons since 2010 and Lance Franklin looms the wildcard while Josh Kennedy has regained some brilliant touch in recent weeks. If the Swans are to make a charge for the eight they must win this game and if they did miraculously they’d be in the eight for the first time in a see-sawing season.

 

Chance of winning:

Demons 55%

Swans 45%

 

Bulldogs v West Coast at Etihad Stadium

Head tip: Don’t underestimate last week’s one point win against the Kangaroos as the Dogs in a tight contest reclaimed its grunt and tenacity that took it through the finals. Back at Etihad stadium where they have averaged 94 points a game and won five of six this season, the Dogs with the return of Robert (Bob) Murphy while not at their best should get the win.

Heart tip: If there is a team the Eagles can beat in Melbourne it’s the Dogs. Three of the last contests have been decided by 10 points or less and the Eagles desperately need to win to stay in the top eight. Elliot Yeo looms as the game breaker along with serial leather poisoners Sam Mitchell and Andrew Gaff.

 

Chance of winning:

Bulldogs 70%

Eagles 30%

 

Carlton vs Adelaide at MCG

Head tip: A dress rehearsal for the Crows at the MCG for September looms as a danger game with plenty of questions being asked about the Crows physicality and game-plan. Coach Don Pyke has hinted at some huge changes this week which could see veteran tough midfielder Scott Thompson come into the line-up to form a one-two punch with surprise packet Hugh Greenwood freeing up Rory Sloane to destroy the Blues.

Heart tip: If you’re a Blues fan now you’d take heart with plenty of players keen to prove their former clubs wrong and are doing so. The club under coach Brendan Bolton are playing like the Hawks without the top line talent which means they are a danger to any side that takes them lightly. Watch for Sam Kerridge and his game on Sloane and how Bryce Gibbs fares against his home state club.

 

Chance of winning:

Blues 35%

Crows 65%

 

Gold Coast v Nth Melbourne at Metricon Stadium

Head tip: If Gary Ablett Jnr suits up for game 300 then the Suns should romp home in a canter in this one. No individual player has enjoyed playing a side so much more than Ablett Jnr after the famous words of Kangaroos coach Brad Scott in 2008, “We don’t need to tag him, it has no influence.” Ablett averages 34.4 disposals since that game in 2008 against the Kangaroos.

Heart tip: This is the Kangaroos last chance to make any running at the finals in what is an early elimination final in the season. The Roos have remained super competitive in all games but as has been the tale this season have lost 4 games by under one goal. Perhaps this week will be the one which falls their way but unlikely and that would see the Roos start to rebuild for 2018.

 

Chances of winning:

Suns 75%

Kangaroos 25%

 

GWS vs Geelong at Spotless Stadium

Head tip: Game of the round and the Giants have been off the boil in recent times. A contender near the top will have coach Leon Cameron priming his chargers for a scalp to prove they are a genuine contender again in 2017. The cream of the AFL in both teams with two of the highest scoring teams this season will be on display. Depending on how the finals play out, this could be Steve Johnson’s last game against his former side and could produce the magic that clinches the victory against his former side.

Heart tip: The Cats are slowly purring but have also been inconsistent. This game will be won in the middle and if the Cats engine room in Patrick Dangerfield and Joel and Scott Selwood get clicking then they can certainly claim the win for the Catters.

 

Chances of winning:

Giants 51%

Cats 49%

 

Port Adelaide v Richmond at Adelaide Oval

Head tip: The Power are in prime form and are knocking on the door of the top four so this game presents the opportunity to move further up the ladder. Robbie Gray has hit some scintillating form after a mid-season slump and will be the highest ranked player on the ground statistically. The Power have won four of six at home and should account for the Tigers in what I’m expecting to be a close contest.

Heart tip: Are these the real Tigers or the same old Richmond we’ve come to expect? Along with the Power they need a top eight scalp to sharpen their credentials as a finals contender. Dustin Martin is becoming the most talked about player on and off-field but certainly his on field performances has been electric this season. He’s going to need some help as both defences will hold the key to victory keeping their opponents to an average of 78 and 77 per game respectively.

 

Chances of winning:

Power 60%

Tigers 40%

 

Essendon v Brisbane at the Etihad Stadium

Head tip: The Bombers will be keen to atone for last week’s loss to the Swans and the Lions could be on the end of a savage response. The Bombers should have plenty of the ball through midfielders Zac Merrett, Dyson Heppell and Jobe Watson in fact averaging 36 more than their opponent. You take Dayne Beams out for Brisbane and the Bombers will have too much of the footy to not kick a winning score.

Heart tip: It’s been a strange season and anything is possible. If Dayne Zorko, Tom Rockliff and the young midfielders can bring it for four quarters, they may pull a miracle win.  

 

Chances of winning:

Bombers 80%

Lions 20%

 

Hawthorn v Collingwood at MCG

Head tips: Another early elimination final which would see one of these teams knocked out of the race for finals. The Hawks stormed into Adelaide last week and caused the upset of last round and are starting to find some form after spending the first half of the season gelling. A mixture of senior players including Luke Hodge, Shaun Burgoyne and Luke Breust are key players on whether the Hawks can continue their climb or perhaps show their inconsistency against the Pies.

Heart tip: The Pies have shown glimpses of brilliance and consistent hard working footy but have had another season ravaged by injury and form. If Scott Pendlebury gets hot during the game and brings the remaining quartet of Adam Treloar, Steele Sidebottom and Taylor Adams into the fray, the Pies can stay alive and knock a dangerous opponent out of the finals race.  

 

Chances of winning:

Hawthorn 50%

Magpies 50%

 

Fremantle vs St Kilda at Domain Stadium

Head tip: The Dockers at home are a safe pick against poor travelling teams. Their last match against the Cats showed they are extremely competitive in patches and with five games, including this one, of their last games at home they may make a late run at the top eight for September.

Heart tip: The Saints are in the best shape to get their first win in Perth in seven attempts and really need to win on the road to be a contender in September. It’s going to come through the tackling pressure they have applied to stop the Dockers runners in Stephen and Bradley Hill and some big games from Jack Billings and Seb Ross. 

 

Chances of winning:

Dockers 60%

Saints 40%

 

Happy Kurt Tippett-ing and hope this guide helps you pick some winners!

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About the Author

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Guest Writer for Boydz N The Hood. Writer for the Adelaide 36ers and Fiasco Sports, AFL, NBL, SA (South Australia) Basketball and Cricket Enthusiast.



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